ارائه الگوئی برای پیش‌بینی روند مرگ ناشی از سوانح ترافیکی در ایران

Abstract Background: There is no reliable prediction model on the rate of mortality due to road traffic accidents in Iran. The present study aimed to predict deaths from road traffic crashes in Iran. Materials and methods: All death records from traffic accidents in Iran between March 2004 and March 2011 were analyzed. The Box-Jenkins time series model was used for obtaining trends. Death from traffic accidents were predicted from March 2011 to March 2013 and then compared with the actual frequencies. Results: Overall, 21548 deaths (95% CI: 15426-27669) due to road traffic accidents were predicted for 2011 compared to 2010, with a negative growth of 7.32%. Actual frequency was 20404 deaths (95% CI: 9914-30893) for 2013 compared to 2011 with a negative growth of 5.31%. An accuracy rate of 93% was found for prediction of fatal traffic accidents compared to the formal reports by the government. Conclusion: With respect to the frequency of real crashes leading to death by the end of 2011 and its comparison with the time series prediction model, an acceptable accuracy rate of 93% was found. Keywords: Accidents, Death, Iran, Traffic, Prediction